Health System Change:

The View from Wall Street

Winter 1995
Health Affairs , vol.14, no.4 (Winter 1995): 159-163
Paul B. Ginsburg, Joy M. Grossman

group of five health care securities analysts discussed future changes in the industry. Their consensus: First, the pace of change is not likely to change dramatically, especially the shift to managed care. Second, growth in managed care market share will continue at about one to two percentage points per year. Potential growth areas for managed care are the small group market, Medicaid and Medicare. Third, there will be little vertical integration between health plans and providers. These parties will rely on contractual arrangements rather than ownership. Fourth, changes imply substantial capital requirements, which will not be a constraint for sound enterprises. Fifth, to continue cost containment, providers need to develop new approaches to reduce volume and intensity of services.

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